FCB vs MCI
Barcelona (home) vs Manchester City · model confidence 88%
Match Outcome
FCB win 45.8% fair 2.18
Draw 18.6% fair 5.37
MCI win 35.6% fair 2.81
Cross-league European prediction: domestic live ratings shifted by league-strength offsets. Domestic Power tables are not comparable across leagues.
Expected Goals
FCB
2.54
—
2.26
MCI
| Over 2.5 goals | 85.7% | fair 1.17 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 14.3% | fair 7.01 |
| Both teams to score | 82.5% | fair 1.21 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCB 2-2 MCI | 6.8% | |
| FCB 2-1 MCI | 6.0% | |
| FCB 3-2 MCI | 5.7% | |
| FCB 1-2 MCI | 5.3% | |
| FCB 2-3 MCI | 5.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
Rows: FCB goals · Columns: MCI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).
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