BAY vs ARS
Bayern Munich (home) vs Arsenal · model confidence 89% · pregame locked (10-21 · FT 2-2 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
BAY win 35.4% fair 2.83
Draw 22.5% fair 4.45
ARS win 42.1% fair 2.37
Cross-league European prediction: domestic live ratings shifted by league-strength offsets. Domestic Power tables are not comparable across leagues.
Expected Goals
BAY
1.57
—
1.77
ARS
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.9% | fair 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.1% | fair 2.85 |
| Both teams to score | 65.8% | fair 1.52 |
Most Likely Scores
| BAY 1-1 ARS | 9.8% | |
| BAY 1-2 ARS | 8.7% | |
| BAY 2-1 ARS | 7.7% | |
| BAY 2-2 ARS | 6.8% | |
| BAY 0-1 ARS | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.8 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: BAY goals · Columns: ARS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).
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