COM vs MUN
Como (home) vs Manchester United · model confidence 78% · pregame locked (10-21 · FT 4-1 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
Cross-league European prediction: domestic live ratings shifted by league-strength offsets. Domestic Power tables are not comparable across leagues.
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 44.7% / 21.7% / 33.5%.
Expected Goals
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.8% | fair 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.2% | fair 3.31 |
| Both teams to score | 69.4% | fair 1.44 |
Most Likely Scores
| COM 1-1 MUN | 8.8% | |
| COM 2-1 MUN | 8.5% | |
| COM 1-2 MUN | 7.3% | |
| COM 2-2 MUN | 7.1% | |
| COM 3-1 MUN | 5.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: COM goals · Columns: MUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).
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