COM vs PSG
Como (home) vs Paris Saint-Germain · model confidence 83%
Match Outcome
COM win 35.1% fair 2.85
Draw 21.2% fair 4.72
PSG win 43.7% fair 2.29
Cross-league European prediction: domestic live ratings shifted by league-strength offsets. Domestic Power tables are not comparable across leagues.
Expected Goals
COM
1.70
—
1.98
PSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.1% | fair 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.9% | fair 3.46 |
| Both teams to score | 70.4% | fair 1.42 |
Most Likely Scores
| COM 1-1 PSG | 8.5% | |
| COM 1-2 PSG | 8.4% | |
| COM 2-1 PSG | 7.2% | |
| COM 2-2 PSG | 7.1% | |
| COM 1-3 PSG | 5.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Rows: COM goals · Columns: PSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).
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