LIV vs ATM
Liverpool (home) vs Atlético Madrid · model confidence 86% · pregame locked (09-09 · FT 2-1 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
LIV win 62.2% fair 1.61
Draw 18.8% fair 5.31
ATM win 18.9% fair 5.29
Cross-league European prediction: domestic live ratings shifted by league-strength offsets. Domestic Power tables are not comparable across leagues.
Expected Goals
LIV
2.33
—
1.16
ATM
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.7% | fair 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.3% | fair 3.09 |
| Both teams to score | 61.9% | fair 1.62 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIV 2-1 ATM | 9.6% | |
| LIV 2-0 ATM | 8.3% | |
| LIV 1-1 ATM | 8.3% | |
| LIV 3-1 ATM | 7.5% | |
| LIV 1-0 ATM | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: LIV goals · Columns: ATM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).
Try Another Matchup
Pick two big-five teams currently in this competition's fixture list.