MCI vs NAP
Manchester City (home) vs Napoli · model confidence 86%
Match Outcome
MCI win 73.6% fair 1.36
Draw 13.7% fair 7.32
NAP win 12.8% fair 7.82
Cross-league European prediction: domestic live ratings shifted by league-strength offsets. Domestic Power tables are not comparable across leagues.
Expected Goals
MCI
3.15
—
1.20
NAP
| Over 2.5 goals | 80.9% | fair 1.24 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 19.1% | fair 5.22 |
| Both teams to score | 66.8% | fair 1.50 |
Most Likely Scores
| MCI 3-1 NAP | 8.1% | |
| MCI 2-1 NAP | 7.7% | |
| MCI 3-0 NAP | 6.8% | |
| MCI 2-0 NAP | 6.4% | |
| MCI 4-1 NAP | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 6.4 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Rows: MCI goals · Columns: NAP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).
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