MCI vs PSG
Manchester City (home) vs Paris Saint-Germain · model confidence 87% · pregame locked (10-14 · FT 2-4 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
MCI win 59.6% fair 1.68
Draw 18.3% fair 5.47
PSG win 22.1% fair 4.52
Cross-league European prediction: domestic live ratings shifted by league-strength offsets. Domestic Power tables are not comparable across leagues.
Expected Goals
MCI
2.54
—
1.48
PSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 76.5% | fair 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 23.5% | fair 4.25 |
| Both teams to score | 71.1% | fair 1.41 |
Most Likely Scores
| MCI 2-1 PSG | 8.6% | |
| MCI 3-1 PSG | 7.3% | |
| MCI 1-1 PSG | 6.8% | |
| MCI 2-2 PSG | 6.3% | |
| MCI 2-0 PSG | 5.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Rows: MCI goals · Columns: PSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).
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