MUN vs BAY
Manchester United (home) vs Bayern Munich · model confidence 83%
Match Outcome
MUN win 27.3% fair 3.66
Draw 19.0% fair 5.25
BAY win 53.6% fair 1.86
Cross-league European prediction: domestic live ratings shifted by league-strength offsets. Domestic Power tables are not comparable across leagues.
Expected Goals
MUN
1.62
—
2.44
BAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 77.2% | fair 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 22.8% | fair 4.38 |
| Both teams to score | 73.3% | fair 1.36 |
Most Likely Scores
| MUN 1-2 BAY | 8.3% | |
| MUN 1-1 BAY | 6.8% | |
| MUN 1-3 BAY | 6.8% | |
| MUN 2-2 BAY | 6.7% | |
| MUN 2-1 BAY | 5.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 3.2 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 2.6 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
Rows: MUN goals · Columns: BAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).
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