NAP vs ARS
Napoli (home) vs Arsenal · model confidence 87% · pregame locked (09-09 · FT 0-1 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
NAP win 17.5% fair 5.71
Draw 18.5% fair 5.41
ARS win 64.0% fair 1.56
Cross-league European prediction: domestic live ratings shifted by league-strength offsets. Domestic Power tables are not comparable across leagues.
Expected Goals
NAP
1.00
—
2.30
ARS
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.1% | fair 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.9% | fair 2.79 |
| Both teams to score | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| NAP 1-2 ARS | 9.8% | |
| NAP 0-2 ARS | 9.7% | |
| NAP 1-1 ARS | 8.5% | |
| NAP 0-1 ARS | 8.5% | |
| NAP 1-3 ARS | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 3.1 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 3.1 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NAP goals · Columns: ARS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).
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