PSG vs FCB
Paris Saint-Germain (home) vs Barcelona · model confidence 88% · pregame locked (10-20 · FT 4-2 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
PSG win 36.7% fair 2.72
Draw 19.1% fair 5.24
FCB win 44.2% fair 2.26
Cross-league European prediction: domestic live ratings shifted by league-strength offsets. Domestic Power tables are not comparable across leagues.
Expected Goals
PSG
2.16
—
2.41
FCB
| Over 2.5 goals | 83.4% | fair 1.20 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 16.6% | fair 6.04 |
| Both teams to score | 80.5% | fair 1.24 |
Most Likely Scores
| PSG 2-2 FCB | 7.0% | |
| PSG 1-2 FCB | 6.5% | |
| PSG 2-1 FCB | 5.8% | |
| PSG 2-3 FCB | 5.6% | |
| PSG 1-1 FCB | 5.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 2.2 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 2.4 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 2.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.9 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
Rows: PSG goals · Columns: FCB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).
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