PSG vs ROM
Paris Saint-Germain (home) vs Roma · model confidence 86%
Match Outcome
PSG win 54.0% fair 1.85
Draw 19.8% fair 5.04
ROM win 26.2% fair 3.81
Cross-league European prediction: domestic live ratings shifted by league-strength offsets. Domestic Power tables are not comparable across leagues.
Expected Goals
PSG
2.28
—
1.53
ROM
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.3% | fair 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 26.7% | fair 3.75 |
| Both teams to score | 70.4% | fair 1.42 |
Most Likely Scores
| PSG 2-1 ROM | 8.8% | |
| PSG 1-1 ROM | 7.7% | |
| PSG 2-2 ROM | 6.7% | |
| PSG 3-1 ROM | 6.7% | |
| PSG 1-2 ROM | 5.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Rows: PSG goals · Columns: ROM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).
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