RMA vs INT
Real Madrid (home) vs Inter Milan · model confidence 87% · pregame locked (09-08 · FT 2-1 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
RMA win 51.6% fair 1.94
Draw 18.6% fair 5.38
INT win 29.9% fair 3.35
Cross-league European prediction: domestic live ratings shifted by league-strength offsets. Domestic Power tables are not comparable across leagues.
Expected Goals
RMA
2.59
—
1.97
INT
| Over 2.5 goals | 83.3% | fair 1.20 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 16.7% | fair 5.97 |
| Both teams to score | 79.6% | fair 1.26 |
Most Likely Scores
| RMA 2-1 INT | 6.9% | |
| RMA 2-2 INT | 6.8% | |
| RMA 3-1 INT | 6.0% | |
| RMA 3-2 INT | 5.9% | |
| RMA 1-1 INT | 5.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 2.7 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
Rows: RMA goals · Columns: INT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).
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