ROM vs RMA
Roma (home) vs Real Madrid · model confidence 86% · pregame locked (10-14 · FT 3-4 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
ROM win 38.0% fair 2.63
Draw 20.8% fair 4.81
RMA win 41.2% fair 2.43
Cross-league European prediction: domestic live ratings shifted by league-strength offsets. Domestic Power tables are not comparable across leagues.
Expected Goals
ROM
1.88
—
2.01
RMA
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.5% | fair 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 25.5% | fair 3.92 |
| Both teams to score | 73.4% | fair 1.36 |
Most Likely Scores
| ROM 1-2 RMA | 7.8% | |
| ROM 1-1 RMA | 7.7% | |
| ROM 2-2 RMA | 7.3% | |
| ROM 2-1 RMA | 7.3% | |
| ROM 1-3 RMA | 5.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Rows: ROM goals · Columns: RMA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).
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