FCA vs BAY
FC Augsburg (home) vs Bayern Munich · model confidence 83% · pregame locked (10-10 · FT 2-2 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
FCA win 16.6% fair 6.03
Draw 16.3% fair 6.14
BAY win 67.1% fair 1.49
Expected Goals
FCA
1.20
—
2.81
BAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 76.4% | fair 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 23.6% | fair 4.24 |
| Both teams to score | 65.7% | fair 1.52 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCA 1-2 BAY | 8.6% | |
| FCA 1-3 BAY | 8.1% | |
| FCA 0-2 BAY | 7.1% | |
| FCA 0-3 BAY | 6.7% | |
| FCA 1-1 BAY | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 4.6 |
| 1 | 2.2 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 5.6 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 3.3 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCA goals · Columns: BAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).