FCA vs BAY
FC Augsburg (home) vs Bayern Munich · model confidence 82%
Match Outcome
FCA win 15.1% fair 6.64
Draw 15.2% fair 6.57
BAY win 69.7% fair 1.43
Expected Goals
FCA
1.14
—
2.96
BAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 77.7% | fair 1.29 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 22.3% | fair 4.48 |
| Both teams to score | 64.5% | fair 1.55 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCA 1-2 BAY | 8.3% | |
| FCA 1-3 BAY | 8.2% | |
| FCA 0-2 BAY | 7.2% | |
| FCA 0-3 BAY | 7.2% | |
| FCA 1-4 BAY | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 5.7 |
| 1 | 1.9 | 5.6 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 6.5 |
| 2 | 1.1 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 3.7 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCA goals · Columns: BAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).