FCA vs SVW
FC Augsburg (home) vs Werder Bremen · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCA win 49.3% fair 2.03
Draw 21.9% fair 4.57
SVW win 28.8% fair 3.47
Expected Goals
FCA
2.01
—
1.47
SVW
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.5% | fair 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.5% | fair 3.08 |
| Both teams to score | 66.7% | fair 1.50 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCA 2-1 SVW | 9.1% | |
| FCA 1-1 SVW | 9.1% | |
| FCA 2-2 SVW | 6.7% | |
| FCA 1-2 SVW | 6.7% | |
| FCA 2-0 SVW | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCA goals · Columns: SVW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).