FCA vs BVB
FC Augsburg (home) vs Borussia Dortmund · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCA win 26.3% fair 3.80
Draw 22.4% fair 4.47
BVB win 51.3% fair 1.95
Expected Goals
FCA
1.24
—
1.92
BVB
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.2% | fair 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.8% | fair 2.58 |
| Both teams to score | 60.6% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCA 1-1 BVB | 10.1% | |
| FCA 1-2 BVB | 9.7% | |
| FCA 0-1 BVB | 8.2% | |
| FCA 0-2 BVB | 7.8% | |
| FCA 2-1 BVB | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCA goals · Columns: BVB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).