FCA vs ELV
FC Augsburg (home) vs SV Elversberg · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCA win 52.4% fair 1.91
Draw 21.0% fair 4.77
ELV win 26.6% fair 3.76
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 54.1% / 20.4% / 25.6%.
Expected Goals
FCA
2.21
—
1.48
ELV
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.3% | fair 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.7% | fair 3.48 |
| Both teams to score | 68.8% | fair 1.45 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCA 2-1 ELV | 9.0% | |
| FCA 1-1 ELV | 8.2% | |
| FCA 2-2 ELV | 6.7% | |
| FCA 3-1 ELV | 6.6% | |
| FCA 2-0 ELV | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCA goals · Columns: ELV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).