FCA vs SGE
FC Augsburg (home) vs Eintracht Frankfurt · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCA win 48.0% fair 2.09
Draw 20.8% fair 4.81
SGE win 31.2% fair 3.20
Expected Goals
FCA
2.20
—
1.75
SGE
| Over 2.5 goals | 75.5% | fair 1.32 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 24.5% | fair 4.08 |
| Both teams to score | 73.5% | fair 1.36 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCA 2-1 SGE | 8.1% | |
| FCA 1-1 SGE | 7.4% | |
| FCA 2-2 SGE | 7.1% | |
| FCA 1-2 SGE | 6.5% | |
| FCA 3-1 SGE | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Rows: FCA goals · Columns: SGE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).