FCA vs SCF
FC Augsburg (home) vs SC Freiburg · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
FCA win 39.8% fair 2.51
Draw 23.1% fair 4.33
SCF win 37.1% fair 2.69
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 39.1% / 22.9% / 37.9%.
Expected Goals
FCA
1.67
—
1.65
SCF
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.5% | fair 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.5% | fair 2.81 |
| Both teams to score | 65.6% | fair 1.52 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCA 1-1 SCF | 10.0% | |
| FCA 2-1 SCF | 8.3% | |
| FCA 1-2 SCF | 8.2% | |
| FCA 2-2 SCF | 6.9% | |
| FCA 1-0 SCF | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.0 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCA goals · Columns: SCF goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).