FCA vs SCF
FC Augsburg (home) vs SC Freiburg · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCA win 39.4% fair 2.54
Draw 22.4% fair 4.46
SCF win 38.2% fair 2.62
Expected Goals
FCA
1.76
—
1.76
SCF
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.3% | fair 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.7% | fair 3.15 |
| Both teams to score | 68.6% | fair 1.46 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCA 1-1 SCF | 9.2% | |
| FCA 1-2 SCF | 8.1% | |
| FCA 2-1 SCF | 8.1% | |
| FCA 2-2 SCF | 7.1% | |
| FCA 0-1 SCF | 5.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCA goals · Columns: SCF goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).