FCA vs BMG
FC Augsburg (home) vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCA win 53.4% fair 1.87
Draw 20.9% fair 4.79
BMG win 25.7% fair 3.89
Expected Goals
FCA
2.18
—
1.43
BMG
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.9% | fair 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.1% | fair 3.33 |
| Both teams to score | 67.5% | fair 1.48 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCA 2-1 BMG | 9.2% | |
| FCA 1-1 BMG | 8.4% | |
| FCA 3-1 BMG | 6.7% | |
| FCA 2-2 BMG | 6.6% | |
| FCA 2-0 BMG | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCA goals · Columns: BMG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).