FCA vs HSV
FC Augsburg (home) vs Hamburger SV · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCA win 50.7% fair 1.97
Draw 22.6% fair 4.43
HSV win 26.7% fair 3.75
Expected Goals
FCA
1.89
—
1.29
HSV
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.6% | fair 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.4% | fair 2.60 |
| Both teams to score | 61.5% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCA 1-1 HSV | 10.1% | |
| FCA 2-1 HSV | 9.6% | |
| FCA 1-0 HSV | 7.9% | |
| FCA 2-0 HSV | 7.5% | |
| FCA 1-2 HSV | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.1 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCA goals · Columns: HSV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).