FCA vs TSG
FC Augsburg (home) vs TSG Hoffenheim · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCA win 38.0% fair 2.63
Draw 21.5% fair 4.65
TSG win 40.5% fair 2.47
Expected Goals
FCA
1.85
—
1.97
TSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.4% | fair 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 26.6% | fair 3.76 |
| Both teams to score | 72.5% | fair 1.38 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCA 1-1 TSG | 8.0% | |
| FCA 1-2 TSG | 7.9% | |
| FCA 2-1 TSG | 7.4% | |
| FCA 2-2 TSG | 7.3% | |
| FCA 1-3 TSG | 5.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Rows: FCA goals · Columns: TSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).