FCA vs KOE
FC Augsburg (home) vs 1. FC Köln · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCA win 49.4% fair 2.03
Draw 22.0% fair 4.54
KOE win 28.6% fair 3.49
Expected Goals
FCA
1.98
—
1.45
KOE
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.6% | fair 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.4% | fair 3.00 |
| Both teams to score | 66.0% | fair 1.52 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCA 1-1 KOE | 9.3% | |
| FCA 2-1 KOE | 9.2% | |
| FCA 1-2 KOE | 6.7% | |
| FCA 2-2 KOE | 6.7% | |
| FCA 1-0 KOE | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.3 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCA goals · Columns: KOE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).