FCA vs KOE
FC Augsburg (home) vs 1. FC Köln · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
FCA win 43.7% fair 2.29
Draw 22.6% fair 4.42
KOE win 33.7% fair 2.97
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 43.7% / 22.4% / 34.0%.
Expected Goals
FCA
1.83
—
1.60
KOE
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.6% | fair 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.4% | fair 2.99 |
| Both teams to score | 67.0% | fair 1.49 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCA 1-1 KOE | 9.5% | |
| FCA 2-1 KOE | 8.7% | |
| FCA 1-2 KOE | 7.6% | |
| FCA 2-2 KOE | 6.9% | |
| FCA 1-0 KOE | 5.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.5 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCA goals · Columns: KOE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).