FCA vs RBL
FC Augsburg (home) vs RB Leipzig · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCA win 29.8% fair 3.36
Draw 20.7% fair 4.83
RBL win 49.5% fair 2.02
Expected Goals
FCA
1.62
—
2.23
RBL
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.9% | fair 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 26.1% | fair 3.83 |
| Both teams to score | 71.6% | fair 1.40 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCA 1-2 RBL | 8.6% | |
| FCA 1-1 RBL | 7.7% | |
| FCA 2-2 RBL | 6.9% | |
| FCA 1-3 RBL | 6.4% | |
| FCA 2-1 RBL | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 2.4 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Rows: FCA goals · Columns: RBL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).