FCA vs B04
FC Augsburg (home) vs Bayer Leverkusen · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
FCA win 29.1% fair 3.44
Draw 21.5% fair 4.66
B04 win 49.4% fair 2.02
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 26.8% / 21.1% / 52.1%.
Expected Goals
FCA
1.46
—
2.09
B04
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.9% | fair 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.1% | fair 3.22 |
| Both teams to score | 67.4% | fair 1.48 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCA 1-2 B04 | 9.1% | |
| FCA 1-1 B04 | 8.7% | |
| FCA 2-2 B04 | 6.7% | |
| FCA 2-1 B04 | 6.4% | |
| FCA 1-3 B04 | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCA goals · Columns: B04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).