FCA vs M05
FC Augsburg (home) vs Mainz 05 · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCA win 46.5% fair 2.15
Draw 22.2% fair 4.51
M05 win 31.4% fair 3.19
Expected Goals
FCA
1.94
—
1.56
M05
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.7% | fair 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.3% | fair 3.10 |
| Both teams to score | 67.5% | fair 1.48 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCA 1-1 M05 | 9.2% | |
| FCA 2-1 M05 | 8.9% | |
| FCA 1-2 M05 | 7.1% | |
| FCA 2-2 M05 | 6.9% | |
| FCA 1-0 M05 | 5.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.2 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCA goals · Columns: M05 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).