FCA vs M05
FC Augsburg (home) vs Mainz 05 · model confidence 76%
Match Outcome
FCA win 42.4% fair 2.36
Draw 23.9% fair 4.18
M05 win 33.7% fair 2.97
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 42.1% / 23.9% / 34.0%.
Expected Goals
FCA
1.63
—
1.44
M05
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.1% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.9% | fair 2.44 |
| Both teams to score | 61.2% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCA 1-1 M05 | 10.9% | |
| FCA 2-1 M05 | 8.9% | |
| FCA 1-2 M05 | 7.9% | |
| FCA 1-0 M05 | 7.6% | |
| FCA 0-1 M05 | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.9 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCA goals · Columns: M05 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).