FCA vs SCP
FC Augsburg (home) vs SC Paderborn · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCA win 52.8% fair 1.90
Draw 21.9% fair 4.57
SCP win 25.4% fair 3.94
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 54.5% / 21.5% / 24.0%.
Expected Goals
FCA
2.02
—
1.28
SCP
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.2% | fair 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.8% | fair 2.79 |
| Both teams to score | 62.7% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCA 2-1 SCP | 9.6% | |
| FCA 1-1 SCP | 9.5% | |
| FCA 2-0 SCP | 7.5% | |
| FCA 1-0 SCP | 7.4% | |
| FCA 3-1 SCP | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCA goals · Columns: SCP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).