FCA vs S04
FC Augsburg (home) vs Schalke 04 · model confidence 65%
Match Outcome
FCA win 47.4% fair 2.11
Draw 23.0% fair 4.34
S04 win 29.6% fair 3.38
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 48.3% / 22.8% / 28.9%.
Expected Goals
FCA
1.83
—
1.37
S04
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.2% | fair 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.8% | fair 2.64 |
| Both teams to score | 62.8% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCA 1-1 S04 | 10.2% | |
| FCA 2-1 S04 | 9.3% | |
| FCA 1-0 S04 | 7.4% | |
| FCA 1-2 S04 | 7.0% | |
| FCA 2-0 S04 | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.2 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCA goals · Columns: S04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).