FCA vs VFB
FC Augsburg (home) vs VfB Stuttgart · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCA win 36.2% fair 2.76
Draw 21.9% fair 4.57
VFB win 41.9% fair 2.39
Expected Goals
FCA
1.73
—
1.93
VFB
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.7% | fair 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.3% | fair 3.41 |
| Both teams to score | 70.3% | fair 1.42 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCA 1-1 VFB | 8.6% | |
| FCA 1-2 VFB | 8.3% | |
| FCA 2-1 VFB | 7.4% | |
| FCA 2-2 VFB | 7.2% | |
| FCA 1-3 VFB | 5.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCA goals · Columns: VFB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).