FCA vs FCU
FC Augsburg (home) vs Union Berlin · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (10-24 · FT 1-1 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×0.92
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
FCA win 59.5% fair 1.68
Draw 19.8% fair 5.06
FCU win 20.8% fair 4.81
Expected Goals
FCA
2.32
—
1.24
FCU
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): FCA ×1.100 (matched 9), FCU ×0.923 (matched 9). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.9% | fair 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.1% | fair 3.22 |
| Both teams to score | 64.0% | fair 1.56 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCA 2-1 FCU | 9.5% | |
| FCA 1-1 FCU | 8.2% | |
| FCA 2-0 FCU | 7.7% | |
| FCA 3-1 FCU | 7.3% | |
| FCA 1-0 FCU | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCA goals · Columns: FCU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).