BAY vs FCA
Bayern Munich (home) vs FC Augsburg · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BAY win 80.7% fair 1.24
Draw 10.7% fair 9.30
FCA win 8.6% fair 11.65
Expected Goals
BAY
3.65
—
1.02
FCA
| Over 2.5 goals | 84.5% | fair 1.18 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 15.5% | fair 6.44 |
| Both teams to score | 62.4% | fair 1.60 |
Most Likely Scores
| BAY 3-1 FCA | 7.8% | |
| BAY 3-0 FCA | 7.6% | |
| BAY 4-1 FCA | 7.1% | |
| BAY 4-0 FCA | 6.9% | |
| BAY 2-1 FCA | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 10.8 | 11.1 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
Rows: BAY goals · Columns: FCA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).