BAY vs SVW
Bayern Munich (home) vs Werder Bremen · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BAY win 82.2% fair 1.22
Draw 10.1% fair 9.88
SVW win 7.6% fair 13.09
Expected Goals
BAY
3.65
—
0.90
SVW
| Over 2.5 goals | 83.2% | fair 1.20 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 16.8% | fair 5.94 |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| BAY 3-0 SVW | 8.6% | |
| BAY 4-0 SVW | 7.8% | |
| BAY 3-1 SVW | 7.7% | |
| BAY 4-1 SVW | 7.0% | |
| BAY 2-0 SVW | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 12.2 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: BAY goals · Columns: SVW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).