BAY vs BVB
Bayern Munich (home) vs Borussia Dortmund · model confidence 87% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BAY win 60.2% fair 1.66
Draw 19.9% fair 5.03
BVB win 19.9% fair 5.02
Expected Goals
BAY
2.25
—
1.18
BVB
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.6% | fair 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.4% | fair 2.99 |
| Both teams to score | 62.0% | fair 1.61 |
Most Likely Scores
| BAY 2-1 BVB | 9.7% | |
| BAY 1-1 BVB | 8.6% | |
| BAY 2-0 BVB | 8.2% | |
| BAY 1-0 BVB | 7.3% | |
| BAY 3-1 BVB | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: BAY goals · Columns: BVB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).