BAY vs BVB
Bayern Munich (home) vs Borussia Dortmund · model confidence 86%
Match Outcome
BAY win 59.1% fair 1.69
Draw 19.3% fair 5.18
BVB win 21.6% fair 4.64
Expected Goals
BAY
2.41
—
1.36
BVB
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.6% | fair 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27.4% | fair 3.65 |
| Both teams to score | 67.7% | fair 1.48 |
Most Likely Scores
| BAY 2-1 BVB | 9.1% | |
| BAY 1-1 BVB | 7.6% | |
| BAY 3-1 BVB | 7.3% | |
| BAY 2-0 BVB | 6.7% | |
| BAY 2-2 BVB | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Rows: BAY goals · Columns: BVB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).