BAY vs ELV
Bayern Munich (home) vs SV Elversberg · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BAY win 82.6% fair 1.21
Draw 9.4% fair 10.59
ELV win 7.9% fair 12.59
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 88.9% / 7.1% / 4.0%.
Expected Goals
BAY
4.01
—
0.91
ELV
| Over 2.5 goals | 86.8% | fair 1.15 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 13.2% | fair 7.59 |
| Both teams to score | 58.6% | fair 1.71 |
Most Likely Scores
| BAY 4-0 ELV | 7.9% | |
| BAY 3-0 ELV | 7.9% | |
| BAY 4-1 ELV | 7.2% | |
| BAY 3-1 ELV | 7.2% | |
| BAY 5-0 ELV | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 15.0 | 13.6 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Rows: BAY goals · Columns: ELV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).