BAY vs SGE
Bayern Munich (home) vs Eintracht Frankfurt · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BAY win 82.8% fair 1.21
Draw 9.5% fair 10.56
SGE win 7.7% fair 12.98
Expected Goals
BAY
4.00
—
1.07
SGE
| Over 2.5 goals | 88.1% | fair 1.13 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 11.9% | fair 8.43 |
| Both teams to score | 64.6% | fair 1.55 |
Most Likely Scores
| BAY 4-1 SGE | 7.2% | |
| BAY 3-1 SGE | 7.2% | |
| BAY 4-0 SGE | 6.7% | |
| BAY 3-0 SGE | 6.7% | |
| BAY 5-1 SGE | 5.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 12.6 | 13.6 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
Rows: BAY goals · Columns: SGE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).