BAY vs SCF
Bayern Munich (home) vs SC Freiburg · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BAY win 75.5% fair 1.32
Draw 13.3% fair 7.51
SCF win 11.2% fair 8.96
Expected Goals
BAY
3.20
—
1.08
SCF
| Over 2.5 goals | 80.0% | fair 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 20.0% | fair 4.99 |
| Both teams to score | 63.4% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| BAY 3-1 SCF | 8.2% | |
| BAY 2-1 SCF | 7.7% | |
| BAY 3-0 SCF | 7.6% | |
| BAY 2-0 SCF | 7.1% | |
| BAY 4-1 SCF | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 7.4 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Rows: BAY goals · Columns: SCF goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).