BAY vs BMG
Bayern Munich (home) vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BAY win 84.9% fair 1.18
Draw 8.6% fair 11.61
BMG win 6.5% fair 15.47
Expected Goals
BAY
3.97
—
0.88
BMG
| Over 2.5 goals | 86.1% | fair 1.16 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 13.9% | fair 7.20 |
| Both teams to score | 57.3% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| BAY 3-0 BMG | 8.2% | |
| BAY 4-0 BMG | 8.1% | |
| BAY 3-1 BMG | 7.2% | |
| BAY 4-1 BMG | 7.1% | |
| BAY 5-0 BMG | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 15.1 | 13.2 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Rows: BAY goals · Columns: BMG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).