BAY vs HSV
Bayern Munich (home) vs Hamburger SV · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BAY win 82.2% fair 1.22
Draw 10.4% fair 9.59
HSV win 7.4% fair 13.53
Expected Goals
BAY
3.44
—
0.79
HSV
| Over 2.5 goals | 79.4% | fair 1.26 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 20.6% | fair 4.85 |
| Both teams to score | 52.8% | fair 1.89 |
Most Likely Scores
| BAY 3-0 HSV | 9.9% | |
| BAY 2-0 HSV | 8.6% | |
| BAY 4-0 HSV | 8.5% | |
| BAY 3-1 HSV | 7.8% | |
| BAY 2-1 HSV | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.9 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 12.0 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: BAY goals · Columns: HSV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).