BAY vs TSG
Bayern Munich (home) vs TSG Hoffenheim · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BAY win 75.5% fair 1.32
Draw 13.0% fair 7.70
TSG win 11.5% fair 8.66
Expected Goals
BAY
3.37
—
1.21
TSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 83.5% | fair 1.20 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 16.5% | fair 6.06 |
| Both teams to score | 67.6% | fair 1.48 |
Most Likely Scores
| BAY 3-1 TSG | 7.9% | |
| BAY 2-1 TSG | 7.0% | |
| BAY 4-1 TSG | 6.7% | |
| BAY 3-0 TSG | 6.6% | |
| BAY 2-0 TSG | 5.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
Rows: BAY goals · Columns: TSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).