BAY vs KOE
Bayern Munich (home) vs 1. FC Köln · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BAY win 82.1% fair 1.22
Draw 10.2% fair 9.79
KOE win 7.7% fair 13.07
Expected Goals
BAY
3.61
—
0.89
KOE
| Over 2.5 goals | 82.6% | fair 1.21 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 17.4% | fair 5.74 |
| Both teams to score | 57.3% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| BAY 3-0 KOE | 8.7% | |
| BAY 4-0 KOE | 7.9% | |
| BAY 3-1 KOE | 7.8% | |
| BAY 2-0 KOE | 7.3% | |
| BAY 4-1 KOE | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.7 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 12.1 | 10.7 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: BAY goals · Columns: KOE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).