BAY vs KOE
Bayern Munich (home) vs 1. FC Köln · model confidence 81%
Match Outcome
BAY win 80.0% fair 1.25
Draw 11.0% fair 9.11
KOE win 9.1% fair 11.05
Expected Goals
BAY
3.66
—
1.03
KOE
| Over 2.5 goals | 84.6% | fair 1.18 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 15.4% | fair 6.51 |
| Both teams to score | 62.5% | fair 1.60 |
Most Likely Scores
| BAY 3-1 KOE | 7.7% | |
| BAY 3-0 KOE | 7.5% | |
| BAY 4-1 KOE | 7.1% | |
| BAY 4-0 KOE | 6.9% | |
| BAY 2-1 KOE | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 10.9 | 11.2 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
Rows: BAY goals · Columns: KOE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).