BAY vs RBL
Bayern Munich (home) vs RB Leipzig · model confidence 84%
Match Outcome
BAY win 68.0% fair 1.47
Draw 16.0% fair 6.24
RBL win 15.9% fair 6.27
Expected Goals
BAY
2.93
—
1.30
RBL
| Over 2.5 goals | 79.3% | fair 1.26 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 20.7% | fair 4.84 |
| Both teams to score | 68.9% | fair 1.45 |
Most Likely Scores
| BAY 2-1 RBL | 8.1% | |
| BAY 3-1 RBL | 7.9% | |
| BAY 2-0 RBL | 6.2% | |
| BAY 3-0 RBL | 6.1% | |
| BAY 4-1 RBL | 5.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 4.7 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
Rows: BAY goals · Columns: RBL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).