BAY vs RBL
Bayern Munich (home) vs RB Leipzig · model confidence 85% · pregame locked (10-17 · FT 6-1 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
BAY win 63.5% fair 1.58
Draw 17.7% fair 5.65
RBL win 18.9% fair 5.30
Expected Goals
BAY
2.67
—
1.36
RBL
| Over 2.5 goals | 76.6% | fair 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 23.4% | fair 4.27 |
| Both teams to score | 69.2% | fair 1.45 |
Most Likely Scores
| BAY 2-1 RBL | 8.6% | |
| BAY 3-1 RBL | 7.7% | |
| BAY 1-1 RBL | 6.5% | |
| BAY 2-0 RBL | 6.3% | |
| BAY 2-2 RBL | 5.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Rows: BAY goals · Columns: RBL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).