BAY vs B04
Bayern Munich (home) vs Bayer Leverkusen · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BAY win 70.4% fair 1.42
Draw 15.0% fair 6.65
B04 win 14.6% fair 6.87
Expected Goals
BAY
3.07
—
1.30
B04
| Over 2.5 goals | 81.2% | fair 1.23 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 18.8% | fair 5.32 |
| Both teams to score | 69.4% | fair 1.44 |
Most Likely Scores
| BAY 3-1 B04 | 7.9% | |
| BAY 2-1 B04 | 7.7% | |
| BAY 4-1 B04 | 6.1% | |
| BAY 3-0 B04 | 6.1% | |
| BAY 2-0 B04 | 5.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 5.4 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
Rows: BAY goals · Columns: B04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).