BAY vs M05
Bayern Munich (home) vs Mainz 05 · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BAY win 80.6% fair 1.24
Draw 11.0% fair 9.12
M05 win 8.5% fair 11.82
Expected Goals
BAY
3.52
—
0.95
M05
| Over 2.5 goals | 82.3% | fair 1.21 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 17.7% | fair 5.66 |
| Both teams to score | 59.6% | fair 1.68 |
Most Likely Scores
| BAY 3-0 M05 | 8.3% | |
| BAY 3-1 M05 | 7.9% | |
| BAY 4-0 M05 | 7.3% | |
| BAY 2-0 M05 | 7.1% | |
| BAY 4-1 M05 | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 10.7 | 10.2 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Rows: BAY goals · Columns: M05 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).