BAY vs SCP
Bayern Munich (home) vs SC Paderborn · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BAY win 81.9% fair 1.22
Draw 10.1% fair 9.89
SCP win 8.0% fair 12.47
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 88.0% / 7.8% / 4.1%.
Expected Goals
BAY
3.68
—
0.79
SCP
| Over 2.5 goals | 82.2% | fair 1.22 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 17.8% | fair 5.62 |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| BAY 3-0 SCP | 9.6% | |
| BAY 4-0 SCP | 8.8% | |
| BAY 2-0 SCP | 7.8% | |
| BAY 3-1 SCP | 7.5% | |
| BAY 4-1 SCP | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.6 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 14.0 | 11.0 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: BAY goals · Columns: SCP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).