BAY vs SCP
Bayern Munich (home) vs SC Paderborn · model confidence 70%
Match Outcome
BAY win 79.9% fair 1.25
Draw 10.7% fair 9.33
SCP win 9.4% fair 10.62
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 87.7% / 7.8% / 4.5%.
Expected Goals
BAY
3.82
—
0.89
SCP
| Over 2.5 goals | 84.9% | fair 1.18 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 15.1% | fair 6.60 |
| Both teams to score | 57.6% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| BAY 3-0 SCP | 8.4% | |
| BAY 4-0 SCP | 8.0% | |
| BAY 3-1 SCP | 7.5% | |
| BAY 4-1 SCP | 7.1% | |
| BAY 2-0 SCP | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 13.8 | 12.2 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Rows: BAY goals · Columns: SCP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).