BAY vs S04
Bayern Munich (home) vs Schalke 04 · model confidence 77% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BAY win 79.7% fair 1.25
Draw 11.6% fair 8.63
S04 win 8.7% fair 11.50
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 85.2% / 9.7% / 5.1%.
Expected Goals
BAY
3.28
—
0.75
S04
| Over 2.5 goals | 76.6% | fair 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 23.4% | fair 4.28 |
| Both teams to score | 50.7% | fair 1.97 |
Most Likely Scores
| BAY 3-0 S04 | 10.5% | |
| BAY 2-0 S04 | 9.6% | |
| BAY 4-0 S04 | 8.6% | |
| BAY 3-1 S04 | 7.8% | |
| BAY 2-1 S04 | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.5 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 11.1 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BAY goals · Columns: S04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).