BAY vs VFB
Bayern Munich (home) vs VfB Stuttgart · model confidence 84% · pregame locked (08-28 · FT 5-1 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
BAY win 66.0% fair 1.51
Draw 16.6% fair 6.03
VFB win 17.4% fair 5.75
Expected Goals
BAY
2.87
—
1.37
VFB
| Over 2.5 goals | 79.6% | fair 1.26 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 20.4% | fair 4.90 |
| Both teams to score | 70.5% | fair 1.42 |
Most Likely Scores
| BAY 2-1 VFB | 8.1% | |
| BAY 3-1 VFB | 7.8% | |
| BAY 2-0 VFB | 5.9% | |
| BAY 3-0 VFB | 5.7% | |
| BAY 1-1 VFB | 5.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 4.1 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
Rows: BAY goals · Columns: VFB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).