BAY vs FCU
Bayern Munich (home) vs Union Berlin · model confidence 83% · pregame locked (09-18 · FT 7-0 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
BAY win 80.6% fair 1.24
Draw 11.1% fair 9.04
FCU win 8.4% fair 11.96
Expected Goals
BAY
3.45
—
0.88
FCU
| Over 2.5 goals | 80.6% | fair 1.24 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 19.4% | fair 5.16 |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| BAY 3-0 FCU | 9.0% | |
| BAY 3-1 FCU | 7.9% | |
| BAY 2-0 FCU | 7.8% | |
| BAY 4-0 FCU | 7.8% | |
| BAY 2-1 FCU | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 10.9 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: BAY goals · Columns: FCU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).