BAY vs FCU
Bayern Munich (home) vs Union Berlin · model confidence 82%
Match Outcome
BAY win 79.2% fair 1.26
Draw 11.6% fair 8.59
FCU win 9.1% fair 10.97
Expected Goals
BAY
3.40
—
0.92
FCU
| Over 2.5 goals | 80.5% | fair 1.24 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 19.5% | fair 5.13 |
| Both teams to score | 58.3% | fair 1.72 |
Most Likely Scores
| BAY 3-0 FCU | 8.7% | |
| BAY 3-1 FCU | 8.0% | |
| BAY 2-0 FCU | 7.7% | |
| BAY 4-0 FCU | 7.4% | |
| BAY 2-1 FCU | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 10.1 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: BAY goals · Columns: FCU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).