SVW vs FCA
Werder Bremen (home) vs FC Augsburg · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
SVW win 40.5% fair 2.47
Draw 24.2% fair 4.14
FCA win 35.3% fair 2.84
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 40.0% / 24.2% / 35.8%.
Expected Goals
SVW
1.55
—
1.46
FCA
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.0% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.0% | fair 2.38 |
| Both teams to score | 60.5% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| SVW 1-1 FCA | 11.1% | |
| SVW 2-1 FCA | 8.7% | |
| SVW 1-2 FCA | 8.1% | |
| SVW 1-0 FCA | 7.6% | |
| SVW 0-1 FCA | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.1 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SVW goals · Columns: FCA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).