SVW vs BAY
Werder Bremen (home) vs Bayern Munich · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SVW win 13.4% fair 7.49
Draw 14.3% fair 6.98
BAY win 72.3% fair 1.38
Expected Goals
SVW
1.08
—
3.04
BAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 77.9% | fair 1.28 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 22.1% | fair 4.53 |
| Both teams to score | 63.0% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| SVW 1-3 BAY | 8.2% | |
| SVW 1-2 BAY | 8.1% | |
| SVW 0-3 BAY | 7.6% | |
| SVW 0-2 BAY | 7.5% | |
| SVW 1-4 BAY | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 6.5 |
| 1 | 1.8 | 5.3 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 7.0 |
| 2 | 1.0 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 3.8 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: SVW goals · Columns: BAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).