SVW vs BVB
Werder Bremen (home) vs Borussia Dortmund · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SVW win 23.5% fair 4.26
Draw 22.2% fair 4.50
BVB win 54.3% fair 1.84
Expected Goals
SVW
1.09
—
1.92
BVB
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.0% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.0% | fair 2.38 |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| SVW 1-1 BVB | 10.3% | |
| SVW 1-2 BVB | 9.9% | |
| SVW 0-1 BVB | 9.4% | |
| SVW 0-2 BVB | 9.1% | |
| SVW 1-3 BVB | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SVW goals · Columns: BVB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).